Read the Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – April 23rd, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

On April 23, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will try to continue their good season as they face off against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park. The Red Sox enter this matchup with a record of 14-11, coming off an impressive 8-3 victory against the Mariners just yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mariners, now standing at 12-11, have been competitive but are licking their wounds after the same loss.

Boston’s Sean Newcomb is projected to start, although his 0-2 record this year and Power Rankings position as the 207th best starting pitcher in MLB suggest he’s struggled to find his footing. However, his 3.63 ERA indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, and his 2.58 FIP shows potential for better days ahead. Newcomb’s challenges with control, highlighted by an 11.1 BB%, may come into play against a Mariners offense that is known for its patience and ranks 4th in drawing walks.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock, with an ERA of 12.71, has not been effective in his two starts this season. His last outing was promising, as he went five innings with only two earned runs, but overall, he faces a daunting task against a Red Sox offense ranked as the 8th best in MLB this season. Boston’s lineup is particularly dangerous, featuring potent hitters who have been excelling recently.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs and the Red Sox favored at -140, the projections lean towards Boston maintaining their offensive momentum, potentially exceeding their implied total of 5.07 runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all starting pitchers, Emerson Hancock’s fastball spin rate of 2391.8 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Dylan Moore is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sean Newcomb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Sean Newcomb (43.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Seattle’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Rafael Devers may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)