Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Yankees vs Guardians – Wednesday, April 23, 2025

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees on April 23, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Guardians sitting at 14-9 and the Yankees at 14-10. However, the Guardians currently find themselves as underdogs, despite having won their last game against the Yankees by a score of 3-2 on April 22, 2025.

In this third game of the series, the Guardians will send Luis Ortiz to the mound. Ortiz has had an inconsistent season so far, with a 2-2 record and a troubling ERA of 5.48. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests he may be due for a turnaround, as he’s been somewhat unlucky this year. Ortiz’s last start was encouraging; he pitched five innings, allowing only two earned runs while striking out eight batters. Yet, he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.0 per game, which could be a concern against a potent Yankees lineup.

Carlos Rodon will be on the hill for New York, bringing a 2-3 record and a more respectable 4.34 ERA into the game. Rodon has shown flashes of brilliance, including his last outing where he pitched six shutout innings with nine strikeouts. His 3.39 xFIP indicates he too might improve as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 2nd best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs, ranking 1st in that category. In contrast, the Guardians’ offense ranks 20th overall, making it crucial for Ortiz to keep the Yankees’ bats in check. The projections favor the Yankees, who have an implied total of 4.70 runs, compared to the Guardians’ 3.80 runs. With the Guardians’ strong bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they may need to rely on their relievers to bridge any gaps if Ortiz struggles early.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-165)
  Out of all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Paul Goldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .346 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given that groundball batters have a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Luis L. Ortiz and his 43.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in today’s outing squaring off against 0 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jasson Dominguez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+5.15 Units / 64% ROI)