Player Predictions Overview for Royals vs Yankees – 4/15/2025

Kansas City Royals

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees are set to host the Kansas City Royals on April 15, 2025, in a matchup where the Yankees are currently enjoying a strong start to the season with a record of 9-7, while the Royals sit at 8-9, struggling to find their footing. Following a solid win against the Royals on April 14, where they triumphed 4-1, the Yankees will look to build momentum as they face off in the second game of this series.

Max Fried, projected to take the mound for the Yankees, has been nothing short of sensational this year, boasting a 2-0 record and an impressive 1.56 ERA, which ranks him as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Fried’s ability to induce ground balls—evident in his 52% groundball rate—will be key against a Royals offense that has hit the fewest home runs in the league this season (just 9). This matchup plays into Fried’s strengths and could spell trouble for Kansas City.

On the other side, the Royals will turn to Michael Wacha, who has struggled with a 0-2 record and a 4.20 ERA this season. Wacha’s tendency to give up fly balls (39% flyball rate) could prove problematic against a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in home runs with 32.

The Yankees’ offense ranks 1st in the league, and with Fried’s elite pitching capabilities, they enter this game as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -255. Meanwhile, the Royals, with their 28th-ranked offense, face a tall task as they try to improve their fortunes against the Yankees’ potent attack. The projections suggest that the Yankees are positioned well to take this game, aiming to maintain their positive trend while the Royals look to turn around their early season woes.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Maikel Garcia is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 7% less often this year (43.9%) than he did last year (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Ben Rice has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96-mph average to last year’s 90-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.333 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .360 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 71% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 41% ROI)