Royals vs Red Sox Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/14/24

Kansas City Royals

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox gear up to face the Kansas City Royals on July 14, 2024, at Fenway Park, this American League matchup is shaping up to be an intriguing contest. The Red Sox, currently holding a 52-42 record, are having a solid season and sit comfortably in playoff contention. The Royals, with a 52-44 record, are also having an above-average season and looking to make a strong push as well.

In their last game on July 13, the Red Sox shut out the Royals 5-0, showcasing their offensive strength and pitching prowess. This win marked the second game of the series, giving Boston a 2-0 lead. Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox, aiming to bounce back after a rough outing on July 9. Despite a 5.40 ERA, Bello’s 3.67 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky this season and could perform better moving forward. With a 9-5 record, Bello has shown flashes of brilliance and will need to harness that potential against Kansas City.

On the Royals’ side, Brady Singer will start. Sporting an excellent 2.93 ERA, Singer has been a reliable arm for Kansas City. However, his 3.60 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit fortunate this season. In his last start on July 7, he pitched seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out seven.

The Red Sox offense, ranked 8th in MLB, has been a force to be reckoned with, excelling in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Jarren Duran has been their standout hitter, boasting a .277 batting average and 22 stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Royals’ offense sits at 15th, with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge. Witt Jr. has been exceptional, hitting .324 with 16 home runs and 22 stolen bases.

Boston’s bullpen, ranked 26th, has been a weak point, contrasting sharply with Kansas City’s average bullpen, ranked 18th. This could play a crucial role in a game projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to be a close contest.

The betting markets currently favor the Red Sox with a moneyline set at -135, implying a 55% win probability. THE BAT X projects a 54% win probability for Boston, suggesting a slight edge for bettors backing the Red Sox. With both teams projected to score over 4.5 runs, this game promises to be an exciting clash of offenses and pitching strategies.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Brady Singer has utilized his sinker 12.1% less often this season (39%) than he did last season (51.1%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Adam Frazier’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 85.7-mph figure last year has dropped off to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all SPs, Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Wilyer Abreu tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)